Analysis: Nashville SC On Pace to Finish in Top Four

Speedway Soccer’s Ben Wright analyzes Nashville SC’s points per game and projects where the team could finish at the end of the season.

A quick look at Nashville SC’s home and away average points per game shows what a good start to the season this has been.

Through the first 10 games played, Nashville has won 4 games, drawn 4, and lost 2 for a total of 16 points, which has them currently in 8th place in the Eastern Conference.

Traditionally, winning most home games and drawing most road games has been considered acceptable and usually results in a playoff appearance. At home, Nashville has won 2 matches and drawn 1 for a total of 7 points. On the road, Nashville has won 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and drawn 3 for a total of 9 points.

TEAM Home GP Away GP Expected Points Actual Points Off/On Pace
Louisville 5 5 20 22 2
Nashville 3 7 16 16 0
FCC 5 6 21 20 -1
Tampa Bay 4 7 19 16 -3
NYRB II 5 6 21 17 -4
Charleston 7 5 26 20 -6
North Carolina 4 5 17 11 -6
Pittsburgh 7 4 25 18 -7
Charlotte 7 3 24 17 -7
Penn FC 4 6 18 11 -7
Indy 6 5 23 15 -8
Ottawa 6 5 23 15 -8
Bethlehem 6 5 23 14 -9
Richmond 6 3 21 10 -11
ATL 2 5 6 21 9 -12
TFC 2 5 7 22 2 -20
Data provided by Reddit user lawvol.

Currently, the Boys in Gold are averaging 2.34 points per game at home and 1.29 points per game on the road. This year, each team plays 17 home games and 17 away games for a total of 34 games.

Under the assumption that this form will continue for the rest of the season, Nashville are on track to collect 39.78 points at home and 21.93 points on the road. This would total at ~62 points on the season.

Last year, 44 points was enough to seal 8th place and a spot in the playoffs, 53 points was enough to seal 4th place and a home playoff game, while 62 points won the conference and secured home field throughout the playoffs. This was with 32 games played.

Taking each teams average points per game to project a 34 game season, and assuming that the points per final table position from 2017 translates to 2018, 47 points would finish 8th, 56 points would finish 4th, and 66 points would finish in 1st place.

Based on the strength of opponent, Nashville have played the toughest schedule in the USL so far.

It’s not a stretch to assume that as Nashville plays more home games and gets more games against lower-table sides, the average points per game number will increase. It’s very possible that Nashville finish the season with more than 62 points.

All this to say, the current standings do not tell the full story, and although Nashville are currently in 8th place, they are on track to finish towards the top of the table and even in the top 4. While it hasn’t been flashy, it’s been a very strong start to the season.

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